diff --git a/scripts/export-grafana-reporting-db.sh b/scripts/export-grafana-reporting-db.sh
index 702f615647..74304dfb7d 100644
--- a/scripts/export-grafana-reporting-db.sh
+++ b/scripts/export-grafana-reporting-db.sh
@@ -223,12 +223,17 @@ current_pull_requests AS (
       WHEN a.conclusion IS NOT NULL THEN 'commented'
       ELSE 'manual'
     END AS status,
-    CASE a.conclusion
-      WHEN 'success' THEN 'merge'
-      WHEN 'failure' THEN 'close'
-      WHEN 'action_required' THEN 'manual'
-      WHEN 'neutral' THEN 'manual'
-      WHEN 'skipped' THEN 'ignore'
+    -- The terminal PR outcome (state/merged_at) is the source of truth and takes precedence, exactly like
+    -- status above -- otherwise a merged/closed PR whose advisories.conclusion happens to read
+    -- neutral/action_required (the only two values GitHub Checks reports for the gate's own check run today)
+    -- reports verdict='manual' forever, even though the PR is long since merged/closed (#3511 dashboard bug).
+    CASE
+      WHEN lower(p.state) = 'closed' AND p.merged_at IS NOT NULL THEN 'merge'
+      WHEN lower(p.state) = 'closed' THEN 'close'
+      WHEN a.conclusion = 'success' THEN 'merge'
+      WHEN a.conclusion = 'failure' THEN 'close'
+      WHEN a.conclusion IN ('action_required', 'neutral') THEN 'manual'
+      WHEN a.conclusion = 'skipped' THEN 'ignore'
       ELSE NULL
     END AS verdict,
     p.title AS title,
@@ -378,12 +383,16 @@ current_pull_requests AS (
       WHEN a.conclusion IS NOT NULL THEN 'commented'
       ELSE 'manual'
     END AS status,
-    CASE a.conclusion
-      WHEN 'success' THEN 'merge'
-      WHEN 'failure' THEN 'close'
-      WHEN 'action_required' THEN 'manual'
-      WHEN 'neutral' THEN 'manual'
-      WHEN 'skipped' THEN 'ignore'
+    -- Mirrors status's precedence above (see the matching comment in the Postgres-source block): the terminal
+    -- PR outcome wins over advisories.conclusion, or a merged/closed PR reports verdict='manual' forever
+    -- (#3511).
+    CASE
+      WHEN lower(p.state) = 'closed' AND p.merged_at IS NOT NULL THEN 'merge'
+      WHEN lower(p.state) = 'closed' THEN 'close'
+      WHEN a.conclusion = 'success' THEN 'merge'
+      WHEN a.conclusion = 'failure' THEN 'close'
+      WHEN a.conclusion IN ('action_required', 'neutral') THEN 'manual'
+      WHEN a.conclusion = 'skipped' THEN 'ignore'
       ELSE NULL
     END AS verdict,
     p.title AS title,
diff --git a/test/unit/selfhost-grafana-reporting.test.ts b/test/unit/selfhost-grafana-reporting.test.ts
index be160dc3e7..212bf630ad 100644
--- a/test/unit/selfhost-grafana-reporting.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/selfhost-grafana-reporting.test.ts
@@ -263,6 +263,54 @@ esac
     expect(sqlite(outDb, "SELECT title FROM review_targets WHERE repo='JSONbored/gittensory' AND number=1049;")).toBe("historical PR");
   });
 
+  it("REGRESSION (#3511 dashboard bug): a merged/closed PR reports its OWN verdict, not 'manual', even though advisories.conclusion is stuck at neutral/action_required", () => {
+    const root = tmpRoot();
+    const appDb = join(root, "app.sqlite");
+    const outDb = join(root, "reporting.sqlite");
+    sqlite(appDb, `
+      CREATE TABLE pull_requests (
+        repo_full_name TEXT NOT NULL,
+        number INTEGER NOT NULL,
+        title TEXT NOT NULL,
+        state TEXT NOT NULL,
+        author_login TEXT,
+        merged_at TEXT,
+        created_at TEXT NOT NULL,
+        updated_at TEXT NOT NULL
+      );
+      INSERT INTO pull_requests (repo_full_name, number, title, state, author_login, merged_at, created_at, updated_at)
+      VALUES
+        ('JSONbored/gittensory', 2001, 'merged despite a stuck neutral advisory', 'closed', 'JSONbored', '2026-07-05T09:43:12Z', '2026-07-05T09:30:00Z', '2026-07-05T09:43:12Z'),
+        ('JSONbored/gittensory', 2002, 'closed (not merged) despite a stuck action_required advisory', 'closed', 'JSONbored', NULL, '2026-07-05T09:30:00Z', '2026-07-05T09:43:12Z'),
+        ('JSONbored/gittensory', 2003, 'still open, genuinely held for manual review', 'open', 'JSONbored', NULL, '2026-07-05T09:30:00Z', '2026-07-05T09:43:12Z');
+
+      CREATE TABLE advisories (
+        repo_full_name TEXT NOT NULL,
+        pull_number INTEGER,
+        conclusion TEXT NOT NULL,
+        updated_at TEXT NOT NULL
+      );
+      INSERT INTO advisories (repo_full_name, pull_number, conclusion, updated_at)
+      VALUES
+        -- Reproduces the live production data: the gate's own advisories.conclusion is stuck at
+        -- neutral/action_required for every PR (a separate, unrelated pipeline gap) -- a merged/closed PR must
+        -- not be forced through those branches into verdict='manual' just because this column never resolved.
+        ('JSONbored/gittensory', 2001, 'neutral', '2026-07-05T09:31:00Z'),
+        ('JSONbored/gittensory', 2002, 'action_required', '2026-07-05T09:31:00Z'),
+        ('JSONbored/gittensory', 2003, 'neutral', '2026-07-05T09:31:00Z');
+    `);
+
+    runExporter(root, appDb, outDb);
+
+    expect(sqlite(outDb, "PRAGMA quick_check;")).toBe("ok");
+    expect(sqlite(outDb, "SELECT status || '|' || verdict FROM review_targets WHERE repo='JSONbored/gittensory' AND number=2001;")).toBe("merged|merge");
+    expect(sqlite(outDb, "SELECT status || '|' || verdict FROM review_targets WHERE repo='JSONbored/gittensory' AND number=2002;")).toBe("closed|close");
+    // A genuinely still-open PR is unaffected by the fix -- it has no terminal state/merged_at to take
+    // precedence, so it still falls through to the (separately broken, out of scope here) advisories.conclusion
+    // mapping, exactly as before.
+    expect(sqlite(outDb, "SELECT status || '|' || verdict FROM review_targets WHERE repo='JSONbored/gittensory' AND number=2003;")).toBe("manual|manual");
+  });
+
   it("falls back to legacy review_targets when the current PR cache is absent", () => {
     const root = tmpRoot();
     const appDb = join(root, "app.sqlite");