diff --git a/.github/workflows/orb-stable-release-pr.yml b/.github/workflows/orb-stable-release-pr.yml
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..5e91d318bf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.github/workflows/orb-stable-release-pr.yml
@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+# Automated ORB (self-host container image, ghcr.io/jsonbored/gittensory-selfhost) STABLE-channel Release PR --
+# the release-please-equivalent for ORB, whose cross-cutting image-relevant scoping (src/** shared with
+# UI/MCP-only subtrees it must exclude -- see orb-release-core.mjs's IMAGE_RELEVANT_PREFIXES/EXCLUDED_PREFIXES)
+# doesn't fit release-please's directory-component model the way packages/gittensory-mcp and
+# packages/gittensory-engine do (see mcp-release-please.yml). Same UX contract as those, hand-rolled: on the
+# same schedule (or on demand), (re)compute the next stable version from conventional commits since the last
+# STABLE orb-v tag (scripts/check-orb-stable-release-due.mjs / orb-release-core.mjs's buildOrbStableReleaseReport)
+# and keep a standing `release-orb-stable` branch + PR in sync with that proposal. Nothing ships until a
+# maintainer reviews and merges it -- see orb-stable-release-tag.yml for what happens then. Never touches the
+# daily fully-unattended beta channel (orb-beta-release.yml).
+name: orb-stable-release-pr
+
+on:
+  workflow_dispatch:
+  schedule:
+    - cron: "0 16 */2 * *"
+
+permissions:
+  contents: write # push the release-orb-stable branch
+  pull-requests: write # create/update the Release PR
+
+concurrency:
+  group: orb-stable-release-pr
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
+jobs:
+  refresh-release-pr:
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    timeout-minutes: 15
+    steps:
+      - name: Checkout
+        uses: actions/checkout@9c091bb21b7c1c1d1991bb908d89e4e9dddfe3e0 # v7
+        with:
+          fetch-depth: 0
+          persist-credentials: false
+
+      - name: Setup Node
+        uses: actions/setup-node@48b55a011bda9f5d6aeb4c2d9c7362e8dae4041e # v6
+        with:
+          node-version: 24.18.0
+
+      - name: Check whether a stable ORB release is due
+        id: report
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          node scripts/check-orb-stable-release-due.mjs --json --output orb-stable-release-due.json
+          node <<'NODE'
+          const fs = require("node:fs");
+          const report = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync("orb-stable-release-due.json", "utf8"));
+          fs.appendFileSync(process.env.GITHUB_OUTPUT, `due=${report.due}\n`);
+          fs.appendFileSync(process.env.GITHUB_OUTPUT, `next_version=${report.nextVersion}\n`);
+          fs.appendFileSync(process.env.GITHUB_OUTPUT, `release_type=${report.releaseType}\n`);
+          fs.appendFileSync(process.env.GITHUB_OUTPUT, `commit_count=${report.commits.length}\n`);
+          NODE
+
+      # Bumps orb-manifest.json's version to the proposal -- this diff, sitting in an open PR nobody has merged
+      # yet, IS the human-reviewable gate: nothing downstream (tagging, publishing) happens until a maintainer
+      # merges it. Never writes directly to main.
+      - name: Update orb-manifest.json
+        if: steps.report.outputs.due == 'true'
+        env:
+          NEXT_VERSION: ${{ steps.report.outputs.next_version }}
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          node <<'NODE'
+          const fs = require("node:fs");
+          const manifest = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync("orb-manifest.json", "utf8"));
+          manifest.version = process.env.NEXT_VERSION;
+          fs.writeFileSync("orb-manifest.json", `${JSON.stringify(manifest, null, 2)}\n`);
+          NODE
+
+      - name: Render release notes
+        if: steps.report.outputs.due == 'true'
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          node <<'NODE' > release-orb-stable-body.md
+          const fs = require("node:fs");
+          const report = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync("orb-stable-release-due.json", "utf8"));
+          const lines = [
+            `Proposes cutting **orb-v${report.nextVersion}** (a \`${report.releaseType}\` release) from the current` ,
+            `stable release **${report.latestStableTag ?? "(none yet)"}**.`,
+            "",
+            "Merging this PR tags `orb-v" + report.nextVersion + "` and dispatches the image build/publish --" ,
+            "which still requires a `release` environment approval before anything reaches GHCR (see" ,
+            "`.github/workflows/release-selfhost.yml`). The daily beta channel is unaffected either way.",
+            "",
+            "## Image-relevant commits since the last stable release",
+            "",
+            ...report.commits.map((c) => `- ${c.subject} (${c.sha.slice(0, 7)})`),
+          ];
+          console.log(lines.join("\n"));
+          NODE
+
+      # Standing branch, force-pushed each run so it always reflects the CURRENT proposal (mirrors how a
+      # release-please Release PR keeps rebasing itself as new commits land) -- never a growing pile of stale
+      # commits from prior runs.
+      - name: Push the release-orb-stable branch
+        if: steps.report.outputs.due == 'true'
+        env:
+          GH_TOKEN: ${{ github.token }}
+          NEXT_VERSION: ${{ steps.report.outputs.next_version }}
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          git config user.name "github-actions[bot]"
+          git config user.email "41898282+github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com"
+          git checkout -B release-orb-stable
+          git add orb-manifest.json
+          git commit -m "chore(release): cut orb-v${NEXT_VERSION}"
+          git remote set-url origin "https://github.com/${GITHUB_REPOSITORY}.git"
+          gh auth setup-git
+          git push --force origin release-orb-stable
+
+      - name: Create or refresh the Release PR
+        if: steps.report.outputs.due == 'true'
+        env:
+          GH_TOKEN: ${{ github.token }}
+          NEXT_VERSION: ${{ steps.report.outputs.next_version }}
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          title="chore(release): cut orb-v${NEXT_VERSION}"
+          existing="$(gh pr list --head release-orb-stable --state open --json number --jq '.[0].number // empty')"
+          if [ -n "$existing" ]; then
+            gh pr edit "$existing" --title "$title" --body-file release-orb-stable-body.md
+          else
+            gh pr create --head release-orb-stable --base main --title "$title" --body-file release-orb-stable-body.md
+          fi
+
+      - name: Summarize
+        if: always()
+        run: |
+          node <<'NODE'
+          const fs = require("node:fs");
+          if (!fs.existsSync("orb-stable-release-due.json")) process.exit(0);
+          const report = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync("orb-stable-release-due.json", "utf8"));
+          const lines = [
+            "## ORB Stable Release PR",
+            "",
+            `- Due: \`${report.due}\``,
+            `- Current stable: \`${report.latestStableTag ?? "none"}\``,
+            `- Proposed next version: \`${report.nextVersion}\` (\`${report.releaseType ?? "n/a"}\`)`,
+            `- Image-relevant commits since stable: \`${report.commits.length}\``,
+          ];
+          fs.appendFileSync(process.env.GITHUB_STEP_SUMMARY, `${lines.join("\n")}\n`);
+          NODE
diff --git a/.github/workflows/orb-stable-release-tag.yml b/.github/workflows/orb-stable-release-tag.yml
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..a05c835dc9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.github/workflows/orb-stable-release-tag.yml
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+# Fires when a maintainer merges the standing `release-orb-stable` PR opened/refreshed by
+# orb-stable-release-pr.yml -- that merge (a real human GitHub-UI action, not a bot-authored push, so none of
+# the GITHUB_TOKEN recursion-prevention caveats orb-beta-release.yml/mcp-release-please.yml document apply
+# here) is the single deliberate "ship it" gesture for the STABLE channel. Tags `orb-vX.Y.Z` from the
+# now-merged orb-manifest.json version and dispatches release-selfhost.yml exactly like the beta workflow does,
+# except the version has no `-beta.` suffix so release-selfhost.yml's own environment expression routes it to
+# the human-gated `release` environment (reviewer approval required) rather than `release-beta` -- promoting to
+# stable still gets a second, independent approval beyond this PR merge.
+name: orb-stable-release-tag
+
+on:
+  pull_request:
+    types: [closed]
+    branches: [main]
+
+permissions:
+  contents: write # create + push the stable tag
+  actions: write # dispatch release-selfhost.yml for the new tag
+
+concurrency:
+  group: orb-stable-release-tag
+  cancel-in-progress: false
+
+jobs:
+  tag-stable:
+    if: github.event.pull_request.merged == true && github.event.pull_request.head.ref == 'release-orb-stable'
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    timeout-minutes: 15
+    steps:
+      - name: Checkout
+        uses: actions/checkout@9c091bb21b7c1c1d1991bb908d89e4e9dddfe3e0 # v7
+        with:
+          ref: main
+          fetch-depth: 0
+          persist-credentials: false
+
+      - name: Read the released version
+        id: version
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          version="$(node -e 'console.log(JSON.parse(require("node:fs").readFileSync("orb-manifest.json", "utf8")).version)')"
+          echo "version=${version}" >> "$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
+          echo "tag=orb-v${version}" >> "$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
+
+      # Same idempotency guard as orb-beta-release.yml's own tagging step: refuse an ambiguous branch collision,
+      # skip (rather than fail) if the tag already exists -- e.g. a second merge to the same target version,
+      # which the due-check on the next scheduled run would already have prevented from being proposed again,
+      # but this stays a hard backstop independent of that.
+      - name: Tag the stable release
+        id: tag
+        env:
+          GH_TOKEN: ${{ github.token }}
+          TAG: ${{ steps.version.outputs.tag }}
+          VERSION: ${{ steps.version.outputs.version }}
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          if git ls-remote --exit-code --heads origin "$TAG" >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+            echo "::error::Branch $TAG already exists; refusing to create or dispatch an ambiguous release ref."
+            exit 1
+          fi
+          if git rev-parse -q --verify "refs/tags/$TAG" >/dev/null; then
+            echo "Tag $TAG already exists; skipping (a previous run likely already tagged it)."
+            echo "created=false" >> "$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
+          else
+            git config user.name "github-actions[bot]"
+            git config user.email "41898282+github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com"
+            git tag -a "$TAG" -m "gittensory-orb ${VERSION}"
+            git remote set-url origin "https://github.com/${GITHUB_REPOSITORY}.git"
+            gh auth setup-git
+            git push origin "$TAG"
+            echo "created=true" >> "$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
+          fi
+
+      # Dispatched against the fully qualified TAG ref, not `main`, for the same race-safety reason
+      # orb-beta-release.yml's identical step documents: main can move between the tag push above and this
+      # dispatch, and release-selfhost.yml's own TAG_SHA-must-equal-RELEASE_SHA fail-safe would abort if the two
+      # diverged.
+      - name: Dispatch the ORB release build
+        if: steps.tag.outputs.created == 'true'
+        env:
+          GH_TOKEN: ${{ github.token }}
+          TAG: ${{ steps.version.outputs.tag }}
+          VERSION: ${{ steps.version.outputs.version }}
+        run: gh workflow run release-selfhost.yml --ref "refs/tags/$TAG" -f "version=${VERSION}" -f create_github_release=true
diff --git a/scripts/check-orb-stable-release-due.mjs b/scripts/check-orb-stable-release-due.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..d8fe097382
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/check-orb-stable-release-due.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+// Computes whether a new STABLE (non-beta) ORB release is due, and what its proposed version would be.
+// Read-only / side-effect-free by design, mirroring check-orb-release-due.mjs's own reasoning: the actual
+// orb-manifest.json bump + `git tag` + PR create/update (the consequential actions) happen as explicit,
+// auditable steps in .github/workflows/orb-stable-release-pr.yml, not hidden inside this script. See
+// scripts/orb-release-core.mjs's buildOrbStableReleaseReport for the underlying logic and rationale.
+import { execFileSync } from "node:child_process";
+import { writeFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { buildOrbStableReleaseReport } from "./orb-release-core.mjs";
+
+function main() {
+  const args = parseArgs(process.argv.slice(2));
+  const tags = git(["tag", "--list", "orb-v*"]).split("\n").filter(Boolean);
+  const stableTagName = latestStableTagName(tags);
+
+  const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({
+    tags,
+    commitsSinceStable: readCommits(stableTagName ? `${stableTagName}..HEAD` : "HEAD"),
+  });
+
+  if (args.output) writeFileSync(args.output, `${JSON.stringify(report, null, 2)}\n`);
+  if (args.json) process.stdout.write(`${JSON.stringify(report, null, 2)}\n`);
+  if (!args.json && !args.output) {
+    process.stdout.write(report.due ? `ORB stable release due: orb-v${report.nextVersion}\n` : "No ORB stable release due.\n");
+  }
+}
+
+// Same tag-selection concern as check-orb-release-due.mjs's latestStableTagName -- kept here (not exported
+// from the core module) since it's a git-log concern, not a pure-logic one.
+function latestStableTagName(tags) {
+  const stable = tags.filter((tag) => /^orb-v\d+\.\d+\.\d+$/.test(tag));
+  return stable.sort(compareTagsDesc)[0] ?? null;
+}
+
+function compareTagsDesc(left, right) {
+  return right.localeCompare(left, undefined, { numeric: true });
+}
+
+function parseArgs(argv) {
+  const args = { json: false, output: null };
+  for (let index = 0; index < argv.length; index += 1) {
+    const arg = argv[index];
+    if (arg === "--json") {
+      args.json = true;
+    } else if (arg === "--output") {
+      args.output = argv[++index];
+    } else {
+      throw new Error(`Unknown option: ${arg}`);
+    }
+  }
+  return args;
+}
+
+function readCommits(revisionRange) {
+  const format = "%x1e%H%x1f%s%x1f%B";
+  const logOutput = git(["log", "--reverse", "--no-merges", `--format=${format}`, revisionRange]);
+  return logOutput
+    .split("\x1e")
+    .map((entry) => entry.trim())
+    .filter(Boolean)
+    .map((entry) => {
+      const [sha, subject, ...bodyParts] = entry.split("\x1f");
+      return { sha, subject: subject?.split("\n")[0] ?? "", body: bodyParts.join("\x1f"), files: readCommitFiles(sha) };
+    });
+}
+
+function readCommitFiles(sha) {
+  return git(["diff-tree", "--no-commit-id", "--name-only", "-r", sha]).split("\n").filter(Boolean);
+}
+
+function git(args) {
+  return execFileSync("git", args, { encoding: "utf8", maxBuffer: 1024 * 1024 * 200 });
+}
+
+main();
diff --git a/scripts/orb-release-core.d.mts b/scripts/orb-release-core.d.mts
index 1f905bcfd2..9b10164718 100644
--- a/scripts/orb-release-core.d.mts
+++ b/scripts/orb-release-core.d.mts
@@ -26,6 +26,16 @@ export type OrbReleaseReport = {
   latestStableTag: string | null;
   latestTag: string | null;
   commits: OrbReleaseCommit[];
+  commitsSinceStable: OrbReleaseCommit[];
+};
+
+export type OrbStableReleaseReport = {
+  due: boolean;
+  stableVersion: string;
+  nextVersion: string;
+  releaseType: "major" | "minor" | "patch" | null;
+  latestStableTag: string | null;
+  commits: OrbReleaseCommit[];
 };
 
 export function parseConventionalSubject(subject: string): {
@@ -43,8 +53,10 @@ export function latestStableOrbTag(tags: string[]): { tag: string; version: stri
 export function latestOrbTag(tags: string[]): { tag: string; version: string } | null;
 export function isImageRelevantCommit(commit: OrbReleaseCommit): boolean;
 export function selectImageRelevantCommits<T extends OrbReleaseCommit>(commits: T[]): T[];
+export function inferReleaseType(commits: OrbReleaseCommit[]): "major" | "minor" | "patch" | null;
 export function buildOrbReleaseReport(input: {
   tags: string[];
   manifestVersion: string | null;
   commits: { sinceStable: OrbReleaseCommit[]; sinceLastTag: OrbReleaseCommit[] };
 }): OrbReleaseReport;
+export function buildOrbStableReleaseReport(input: { tags: string[]; commitsSinceStable?: OrbReleaseCommit[] }): OrbStableReleaseReport;
diff --git a/scripts/orb-release-core.mjs b/scripts/orb-release-core.mjs
index 5a61f8ea9d..5d23c78be9 100644
--- a/scripts/orb-release-core.mjs
+++ b/scripts/orb-release-core.mjs
@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ function matchesAnyPrefix(file, prefixes) {
   return prefixes.some((prefix) => (prefix.endsWith("/") ? file.startsWith(prefix) : file === prefix));
 }
 
-function inferReleaseType(commits) {
+export function inferReleaseType(commits) {
   if (commits.length === 0) return null;
   let type = "patch";
   for (const commit of commits) {
@@ -188,5 +188,34 @@ export function buildOrbReleaseReport({ tags, manifestVersion, commits }) {
     latestStableTag: stableTag?.tag ?? null,
     latestTag: anyTag?.tag ?? null,
     commits: commitsSinceLastTag,
+    commitsSinceStable,
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Decide whether a STABLE (non-beta) ORB release is due, and what its version would be -- the
+ * `.github/workflows/orb-stable-release-pr.yml` counterpart to {@link buildOrbReleaseReport}'s beta-channel
+ * logic. Unlike the beta report, this never reads `orb-manifest.json`'s declared target: the whole point of the
+ * standing Release PR this powers is to PROPOSE the next stable version (inferred purely from conventional
+ * commits since the last stable tag) for a maintainer to review by merging -- the PR diff writing that proposal
+ * into orb-manifest.json is itself the human-reviewable gate, so there's nothing left here to compare it
+ * against.
+ */
+export function buildOrbStableReleaseReport({ tags, commitsSinceStable }) {
+  const stableTag = latestStableOrbTag(tags);
+  const stableVersion = stableTag?.version ?? "0.0.0";
+
+  const relevantCommits = selectImageRelevantCommits(commitsSinceStable ?? []);
+  const releaseType = inferReleaseType(relevantCommits);
+  const nextVersion = releaseType ? bumpVersion(stableVersion, releaseType) : stableVersion;
+  const due = relevantCommits.length > 0;
+
+  return {
+    due,
+    stableVersion,
+    nextVersion,
+    releaseType,
+    latestStableTag: stableTag?.tag ?? null,
+    commits: relevantCommits,
   };
 }
diff --git a/test/unit/orb-release.test.ts b/test/unit/orb-release.test.ts
index 7957acc673..9b7604471c 100644
--- a/test/unit/orb-release.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/orb-release.test.ts
@@ -2,7 +2,9 @@ import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 import {
   bumpVersion,
   buildOrbReleaseReport,
+  buildOrbStableReleaseReport,
   compareSemver,
+  inferReleaseType,
   isImageRelevantCommit,
   latestOrbTag,
   latestStableOrbTag,
@@ -203,4 +205,88 @@ describe("buildOrbReleaseReport", () => {
     expect(report.due).toBe(true);
     expect(report.nextTag).toBe("orb-v0.5.0-beta.1");
   });
+
+  it("also exposes the raw image-relevant commits since the last STABLE tag, independent of the beta-vs-any-tag commits field", () => {
+    const relevant = commit("fix(queue): x", ["src/queue/processors.ts"]);
+    const excluded = commit("feat(ui): x", ["apps/gittensory-ui/src/x.tsx"]);
+    const report = buildOrbReleaseReport({
+      tags: ["orb-v0.3.0"],
+      manifestVersion: "0.4.0",
+      commits: { sinceStable: [relevant, excluded], sinceLastTag: [relevant] },
+    });
+    expect(report.commitsSinceStable).toEqual([relevant]);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("inferReleaseType", () => {
+  it("returns null for an empty commit list", () => {
+    expect(inferReleaseType([])).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("returns patch when no commit is a feat or breaking change", () => {
+    expect(inferReleaseType([commit("fix(queue): x", ["src/queue/processors.ts"])])).toBe("patch");
+  });
+
+  it("returns minor when any commit is a feat", () => {
+    expect(inferReleaseType([commit("fix(queue): x", ["src/x.ts"]), commit("feat(review): x", ["src/y.ts"])])).toBe("minor");
+  });
+
+  it("returns major when a commit subject has the `!` breaking marker, even ahead of a feat", () => {
+    expect(inferReleaseType([commit("feat(review)!: x", ["src/x.ts"])])).toBe("major");
+  });
+
+  it("returns major when a commit body has a BREAKING CHANGE: footer, even without the `!` marker", () => {
+    expect(inferReleaseType([commit("fix(review): x", ["src/x.ts"], { body: "fix(review): x\n\nBREAKING CHANGE: removes the old field" })])).toBe("major");
+  });
+});
+
+describe("buildOrbStableReleaseReport", () => {
+  it("is not due when there are no image-relevant commits since the last stable tag", () => {
+    const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({ tags: ["orb-v0.3.0", "orb-v0.4.0-beta.27"], commitsSinceStable: [] });
+    expect(report).toMatchObject({ due: false, stableVersion: "0.3.0", nextVersion: "0.3.0", releaseType: null });
+  });
+
+  it("is not due when the only commits since stable are UI/MCP-only (excluded)", () => {
+    const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({
+      tags: ["orb-v0.3.0"],
+      commitsSinceStable: [commit("feat(ui): x", ["apps/gittensory-ui/src/x.tsx"])],
+    });
+    expect(report.due).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("proposes a patch bump when only fixes landed", () => {
+    const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({
+      tags: ["orb-v0.3.0"],
+      commitsSinceStable: [commit("fix(queue): x", ["src/queue/processors.ts"])],
+    });
+    expect(report).toMatchObject({ due: true, nextVersion: "0.3.1", releaseType: "patch" });
+  });
+
+  it("proposes a minor bump when a feat landed", () => {
+    const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({
+      tags: ["orb-v0.3.0"],
+      commitsSinceStable: [commit("fix(queue): x", ["src/x.ts"]), commit("feat(review): x", ["src/y.ts"])],
+    });
+    expect(report).toMatchObject({ due: true, nextVersion: "0.4.0", releaseType: "minor" });
+  });
+
+  it("proposes a major bump when a breaking change landed", () => {
+    const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({
+      tags: ["orb-v0.3.0"],
+      commitsSinceStable: [commit("feat(review)!: x", ["src/x.ts"])],
+    });
+    expect(report).toMatchObject({ due: true, nextVersion: "1.0.0", releaseType: "major" });
+  });
+
+  it("handles a brand-new repo with zero stable tags yet (baseline 0.0.0)", () => {
+    const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({ tags: [], commitsSinceStable: [commit("feat(review): first cut", ["src/review/x.ts"])] });
+    expect(report.latestStableTag).toBeNull();
+    expect(report.stableVersion).toBe("0.0.0");
+    expect(report.nextVersion).toBe("0.1.0");
+  });
+
+  it("defaults commitsSinceStable to empty when omitted", () => {
+    const report = buildOrbStableReleaseReport({ tags: ["orb-v0.3.0"] });
+    expect(report).toMatchObject({ due: false, commits: [] });
+  });
 });