falsifier PROPAGATION is the cheap direction; Auslöschung is a reading, not a stored sum - #1010
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E-FALSIFICATION-IS-THE-CHEAP-DIRECTION-AND-AUSLOESCHUNG-IS-A-READING-1, measured by PROBE-HHTL-FALSIFICATION-ASYMMETRY-1 (7/7). Corollary of the address-space root law. A signed 24xi4 field admits destructive interference -- Auslöschung. A purely positive confidence scalar structurally cannot: it can be diluted, never extinguished. That is the distance between "my confidence went down" and "this was refuted", and only the second is actionable. THE ASYMMETRY, MADE MECHANICAL (F2/F3/F5). Falsifying a universal claim at P costs ONE counterexample region; verifying it costs the whole FAN_OUT (16) and still leaves every level below open. Falsification is the only operation that is O(1) AND totally sound. It reaches a subtree with no enumeration (one depth-1 focus covers all 16 depth-2 and all 16 depth-3 probes by prefix test alone -- the subtree is never materialized), and does not over-kill: silent on sibling subtrees, on other parents, and on its own ANCESTOR, since a child's refutation is not the parent's. The hierarchy does not create Popper's asymmetry; it makes `covers` the entire test. KNOWN-UNKNOWNS ARE ADDRESSABLE-WITHOUT-A-VALUE (F4). Three states, and only the middle admits a targeted probe: known-known (covered address, value present), known-unknown (a real region to drill into, value absent), unknown-unknown (no region at all). This is what makes indirect intermediate known-unknowns cheap, and it pairs exactly with the shipped CausalTopology::IndirectUnknownIntermediates -- the topology says an intermediate exists, the address says where it would live, the pothole says we don't have it. INHERITANCE IS DIRECTIONAL (F7): downstream is covers, upstream is common_prefix. P covers C but C does not cover P. TWO COSTS MEASURED, NOT CONCEDED: COST 1 (F1) -- Auslöschung must be a READING, never a stored sum. net(+3,-3) == net(unset) == 0, so a summed slot cannot distinguish "support and refutation annihilated" from "nothing was ever asserted". Those license opposite actions: the first is a licence to LEARN, the second a licence to LOOK. Two slots keep the three-way state and the registers differ bitwise even at net zero. Same shape as the standing rule that a contradiction is committed and preserved, not resolved away. COST 2 (F6) -- the operator's own "worst case connective tissue" admission, measured. Collapse is free: all 16 children explicitly = 16 entries but absorbs to 1. "All but one" costs 15 entries, and RowFocusMask::difference CANNOT help -- subtracting the hole from the parent yields 1 entry that STILL COVERS THE HOLE. That is sharper than "conservative": difference is not usable as an exclusion primitive, and reading its output as "everything except the hole" is unsound. This is the mechanical root of the standing P* rule. Consequence: an exclusion needs its own channel -- a signed negative at the excluded address -- never a subtracted prefix. Which is Auslöschung again: mark the hole, do not carve it out. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01KCGhDYoQBXs3poaR7sFuqp
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Addresses the review of #1010. "Falsification is O(1)" was too broad. The defensible statement, now used everywhere: once a valid counterexample region is KNOWN, applying it to a universal claim over an addressed subtree is O(1) in subtree population size, via prefix containment. DISCOVERING the counterexample is not proven cheap -- that may involve probing, search, causal inference, I/O, or pair-field work, none of which this probe measures. What the hierarchy makes cheap is the PROPAGATION of a falsifier, never its discovery. The distinction matters enormously the moment this gets compared against GPU or causal-representation-learning approaches, where discovery IS the expensive half -- claiming O(1) falsification without the qualifier would be comparing a propagation step against a search. The measured facts are unchanged (F3 still shows propagate=1 region independent of subtree size vs verify=16 at this depth with the levels below still open); only the claim attached to them is corrected. Popper's asymmetry is not created by the hierarchy -- the hierarchy makes its PROPAGATION half mechanical, with `covers` as the entire test. 7/7 still green. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01KCGhDYoQBXs3poaR7sFuqp
…-falsification-asymmetry
a97f960
into
claude/probe-evidence-generalization
Measures the claim that HHTL + a signed
24×i4field makes falsification cheap, and that the hierarchy's cost is "more connective tissue than leaf nodes."PROBE-HHTL-FALSIFICATION-ASYMMETRY-1, 7/7 — with two costs measured rather than conceded.Recut after review (commit
67405bc): the complexity claim is now scoped to propagation.Why a signed field is categorically different
A signed field admits destructive interference — Auslöschung.
+nand−nat one address cancel. A purely positive confidence scalar structurally cannot do this: it can be diluted, never extinguished. That is the whole distance between "my confidence went down" and "this was refuted."The asymmetry — and exactly what is
O(1)The precise claim (corrected from a broader "falsification is
O(1)"): once a valid counterexample region is known, applying it to a universal claim over an addressed subtree isO(1)in subtree population size via prefix containment. Discovering the counterexample is NOT proven cheap — that may involve probing, search, causal inference, I/O, or pair-field work, none of which this probe measures.What the hierarchy makes cheap is the propagation of a falsifier, never its discovery. The distinction matters the moment this is compared against GPU or causal-representation-learning approaches, where discovery is the expensive half — claiming
O(1)falsification without the qualifier would be comparing a propagation step against a search.Propagation reaches a whole subtree with no enumeration (F2 — one depth-1 focus covers all 16 depth-2 and all 16 depth-3 probes by prefix test alone; the subtree is never materialized), and doesn't over-kill (F5 — silent on sibling subtrees, on other parents, and on its own ancestor, since a child's refutation is not the parent's).
Known-unknowns are addressable-without-a-value (F4)
Only the middle case admits a targeted counterfactual probe. It pairs with the shipped
CausalTopology::IndirectUnknownIntermediates: the topology register says an intermediate exists, the address space says where it would live, the pothole says we don't have it yet.F7 — inheritance is directional: downstream is
covers, upstream iscommon_prefix.P.covers(C)but notC.covers(P).⚠ COST 1 (F1) — Auslöschung must be a READING, never a stored sum
Measured:
net(+3, −3) == net(unset) == 0. A summed slot cannot distinguish "support and refutation met and annihilated" from "nothing was ever asserted here." Those license opposite actions — a licence to LEARN vs a licence to LOOK. Two slots keep the three-way state and the registers differ bitwise even at net zero. Same shape as the standing rule that a contradiction is committed and preserved, not resolved away.⚠ COST 2 (F6) — "all but one" is the worst case, and
differencecannot helpRowFocusMask::differencecannot reduce it: subtracting the hole from the parent yields 1 entry that STILL COVERS THE HOLE.Sharper than "conservative":
differenceis not usable as an exclusion primitive, and reading its output as "everything except the hole" is unsound. This is the mechanical root of the standing P* rule.Consequence: an exclusion needs its own channel — a signed negative at the excluded address — never a subtracted prefix. Which is Auslöschung again: you mark the hole, you don't carve it out.
Scope
Toy hierarchy, shipped operators. The signed field is the probe-local reading from
PROBE-TARSKI-SIGNED-WITNESS-1, not the A9LocusAPI. No claim that beliefs currently have such addresses; #1006 says they do not.