feat(analytics): persist recommendation outcome events

migrations/0018_recommendation_outcome_surface_snapshot.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+ALTER TABLE agent_recommendation_outcomes ADD COLUMN surface TEXT;
+ALTER TABLE agent_recommendation_outcomes ADD COLUMN snapshot_id TEXT;

src/db/repositories.ts

@@ -1482,7 +1482,7 @@ function maxIso(left: string | null | undefined, right: string | null | undefine
 }
 
 function outcomeStateBuckets(outcomes: AgentRecommendationOutcomeRecord[]): AgentRecommendationOutcomeSummary["states"] {
-  const states: AgentRecommendationOutcomeState[] = ["accepted", "merged", "improved", "closed", "stale", "ignored"];
+  const states: AgentRecommendationOutcomeState[] = ["accepted", "merged", "improved", "closed", "rejected", "stale", "ignored"];
   return states.flatMap((state) => {
     const count = outcomes.filter((outcome) => outcome.outcomeState === state).length;
     return count > 0 ? [{ state, count }] : [];
@@ -1494,6 +1494,7 @@ function recommendationOutcomeTotals(
   maintainerLaneTotal: number,
 ): AgentRecommendationOutcomeSummary["totals"] {
   const accepted = outcomes.filter((outcome) => outcome.outcomeState === "accepted").length;
+  const rejected = outcomes.filter((outcome) => outcome.outcomeState === "rejected").length;
   const merged = outcomes.filter((outcome) => outcome.outcomeState === "merged").length;
   const improved = outcomes.filter((outcome) => outcome.outcomeState === "improved").length;
   const closed = outcomes.filter((outcome) => outcome.outcomeState === "closed").length;
@@ -1502,13 +1503,14 @@ function recommendationOutcomeTotals(
   return {
     total: outcomes.length,
     accepted,
+    rejected,
     ignored,
     stale,
     merged,
     closed,
     improved,
     positive: accepted + merged + improved,
-    negative: closed + stale + ignored,
+    negative: closed + rejected + stale + ignored,
     maintainerLaneTotal,
   };
 }
@@ -1532,6 +1534,7 @@ function summarizeRecommendationOutcomeRepos(outcomes: AgentRecommendationOutcom
         repoFullName: firstRepo.outcomeRepoFullName ?? firstRepo.targetRepoFullName ?? "unknown/repo",
         total: totals.total,
         accepted: totals.accepted,
+        rejected: totals.rejected,
         ignored: totals.ignored,
         stale: totals.stale,
         merged: totals.merged,
@@ -2427,6 +2430,8 @@ export async function upsertAgentRecommendationOutcome(env: Env, outcome: AgentR
     runId: outcome.runId,
     actorLogin: boundedString(outcome.actorLogin, 100),
     actionType: outcome.actionType,
+    surface: outcome.surface ?? null,
+    snapshotId: outcome.snapshotId ?? null,
     targetRepoFullName: outcome.targetRepoFullName ? boundedString(outcome.targetRepoFullName, 200) : null,
     targetPullNumber: outcome.targetPullNumber ?? null,
     targetIssueNumber: outcome.targetIssueNumber ?? null,
@@ -2452,6 +2457,8 @@ export async function upsertAgentRecommendationOutcome(env: Env, outcome: AgentR
       set: {
         actorLogin: values.actorLogin,
         actionType: values.actionType,
+        surface: values.surface,
+        snapshotId: values.snapshotId,
         targetRepoFullName: values.targetRepoFullName,
         targetPullNumber: values.targetPullNumber,
         targetIssueNumber: values.targetIssueNumber,
@@ -3202,6 +3209,8 @@ function toAgentRecommendationOutcomeRecord(row: typeof agentRecommendationOutco
     runId: row.runId,
     actorLogin: row.actorLogin,
     actionType: parseAgentActionType(row.actionType),
+    surface: row.surface ? parseAgentSurface(row.surface) : null,
+    snapshotId: row.snapshotId ?? null,
     targetRepoFullName: row.targetRepoFullName,
     targetPullNumber: row.targetPullNumber,
     targetIssueNumber: row.targetIssueNumber,
@@ -3996,7 +4005,7 @@ function parseAgentSafetyClass(value: string): AgentSafetyClass {
 }
 
 function parseAgentRecommendationOutcomeState(value: string): AgentRecommendationOutcomeState {
-  if (value === "accepted" || value === "ignored" || value === "stale" || value === "merged" || value === "closed" || value === "improved") return value;
+  if (value === "accepted" || value === "rejected" || value === "ignored" || value === "stale" || value === "merged" || value === "closed" || value === "improved") return value;
   return "ignored";
 }
 

src/db/schema.ts

@@ -484,6 +484,8 @@ export const agentRecommendationOutcomes = sqliteTable(
     targetRepoFullName: text("target_repo_full_name"),
     targetPullNumber: integer("target_pull_number"),
     targetIssueNumber: integer("target_issue_number"),
+    surface: text("surface"),
+    snapshotId: text("snapshot_id"),
     outcomeState: text("outcome_state").notNull(),
     outcomeTargetType: text("outcome_target_type").notNull(),
     outcomeRepoFullName: text("outcome_repo_full_name"),

src/services/decision-pack.ts

@@ -1023,6 +1023,7 @@ function emptyRecommendationOutcomeFeedback(login: string): AgentRecommendationO
     totals: {
       total: 0,
       accepted: 0,
+      rejected: 0,
       ignored: 0,
       stale: 0,
       merged: 0,

src/services/recommendation-outcomes.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import {
   listAgentActions,
+  listAgentContextSnapshots,
   listAgentRunsForActor,
   listContributorIssues,
   listContributorPullRequests,
@@ -40,9 +41,14 @@ export async function evaluateRecommendationOutcomes(
     listContributorIssues(env, login),
   ]);
   const completedRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.status === "completed");
-  const actionGroups = await Promise.all(completedRuns.map(async (run) => ({ run, actions: await listAgentActions(env, run.id) })));
-  const classifications = actionGroups.flatMap(({ run, actions }) =>
-    actions.map((action) => classifyRecommendationOutcome({ run, action, pullRequests, issues, evaluatedAt, staleAfterMs, ignoredAfterMs })),
+  const actionGroups = await Promise.all(
+    completedRuns.map(async (run) => {
+      const [actions, snapshots] = await Promise.all([listAgentActions(env, run.id), listAgentContextSnapshots(env, run.id)]);
+      return { run, actions, snapshotId: snapshots[0]?.id ?? null };
+    }),
+  );
+  const classifications = actionGroups.flatMap(({ run, actions, snapshotId }) =>
+    actions.map((action) => classifyRecommendationOutcome({ run, action, pullRequests, issues, evaluatedAt, staleAfterMs, ignoredAfterMs, snapshotId })),
   );
   const classified = classifications.filter((outcome): outcome is AgentRecommendationOutcomeRecord => outcome !== null);
   const outcomes = [];
@@ -63,6 +69,7 @@ export function classifyRecommendationOutcome(args: {
   evaluatedAt: string;
   staleAfterMs: number;
   ignoredAfterMs: number;
+  snapshotId?: string | null | undefined;
 }): AgentRecommendationOutcomeRecord | null {
   const actionAt = timestamp(args.action.createdAt ?? args.run.updatedAt ?? args.run.createdAt);
   const evaluatedAt = timestamp(args.evaluatedAt);
@@ -82,6 +89,7 @@ export function classifyRecommendationOutcome(args: {
       actionAt,
       actionAgeMs,
       staleAfterMs: args.staleAfterMs,
+      snapshotId: args.snapshotId ?? null,
     });
   }
 
@@ -98,6 +106,7 @@ export function classifyRecommendationOutcome(args: {
       actionAt,
       actionAgeMs,
       staleAfterMs: args.staleAfterMs,
+      snapshotId: args.snapshotId ?? null,
     });
   }
 
@@ -112,6 +121,7 @@ export function classifyRecommendationOutcome(args: {
       actionAt,
       actionAgeMs,
       staleAfterMs: args.staleAfterMs,
+      snapshotId: args.snapshotId ?? null,
     });
   }
 
@@ -126,11 +136,13 @@ export function classifyRecommendationOutcome(args: {
       actionAt,
       actionAgeMs,
       staleAfterMs: args.staleAfterMs,
+      snapshotId: args.snapshotId ?? null,
     });
   }
 
   if (actionAgeMs < args.ignoredAfterMs) return null;
   return baseOutcome(args.run, args.action, {
+    snapshotId: args.snapshotId ?? null,
     outcomeState: "ignored",
     outcomeTargetType: targetRepoFullName ? "repository" : "none",
     outcomeRepoFullName: targetRepoFullName ?? null,
@@ -153,10 +165,12 @@ function outcomeFromPullRequest(args: {
   actionAt: number;
   actionAgeMs: number;
   staleAfterMs: number;
+  snapshotId?: string | null | undefined;
 }): AgentRecommendationOutcomeRecord {
   const state = pullRequestOutcomeState(args.pr, args.action, args.actionAt, args.actionAgeMs, args.staleAfterMs);
   const maintainerLane = isMaintainerLane(args.run.actorLogin, args.pr.repoFullName, args.pr.authorAssociation);
   return baseOutcome(args.run, args.action, {
+    snapshotId: args.snapshotId ?? null,
     outcomeState: state,
     outcomeTargetType: "pull_request",
     outcomeRepoFullName: args.pr.repoFullName,
@@ -184,10 +198,12 @@ function outcomeFromIssue(args: {
   actionAt: number;
   actionAgeMs: number;
   staleAfterMs: number;
+  snapshotId?: string | null | undefined;
 }): AgentRecommendationOutcomeRecord {
   const state = issueOutcomeState(args.issue, args.actionAt, args.actionAgeMs, args.staleAfterMs);
   const maintainerLane = isMaintainerLane(args.run.actorLogin, args.issue.repoFullName, args.issue.authorAssociation);
   return baseOutcome(args.run, args.action, {
+    snapshotId: args.snapshotId ?? null,
     outcomeState: state,
     outcomeTargetType: "issue",
     outcomeRepoFullName: args.issue.repoFullName,
@@ -208,6 +224,7 @@ function baseOutcome(
   run: AgentRunRecord,
   action: AgentActionRecord,
   outcome: {
+    snapshotId?: string | null | undefined;
     outcomeState: AgentRecommendationOutcomeState;
     outcomeTargetType: AgentRecommendationOutcomeTargetType;
     outcomeRepoFullName?: string | null | undefined;
@@ -226,6 +243,8 @@ function baseOutcome(
     runId: run.id,
     actorLogin: run.actorLogin,
     actionType: action.actionType,
+    surface: run.surface,
+    snapshotId: outcome.snapshotId ?? null,
     targetRepoFullName: action.targetRepoFullName,
     targetPullNumber: action.targetPullNumber,
     targetIssueNumber: action.targetIssueNumber,
@@ -262,6 +281,7 @@ function pullRequestOutcomeState(
   if (pr.state === "closed" && updatedAt >= actionAt) return "closed";
   const positiveOpenSignal = pr.reviewDecision === "APPROVED" || pr.mergeableState === "clean";
   if (action.targetPullNumber && positiveOpenSignal && updatedAt >= actionAt) return "improved";
+  if (action.targetPullNumber && pr.reviewDecision === "CHANGES_REQUESTED" && updatedAt >= actionAt) return "rejected";
   if (createdAt >= actionAt || updatedAt > actionAt) return "accepted";
   if (actionAgeMs >= staleAfterMs) return "stale";
   return "ignored";
@@ -280,6 +300,7 @@ function pullRequestOutcomeReason(state: AgentRecommendationOutcomeState, pr: Pu
   if (state === "merged") return `${pr.repoFullName}#${pr.number} merged after the recommendation snapshot.`;
   if (state === "closed") return `${pr.repoFullName}#${pr.number} closed without a merge after the recommendation snapshot.`;
   if (state === "improved") return `${pr.repoFullName}#${pr.number} remains open but now has approval or clean mergeability evidence.`;
+  if (state === "rejected") return `${pr.repoFullName}#${pr.number} received a changes-requested review decision after the recommendation snapshot.`;
   if (state === "accepted") return `${pr.repoFullName}#${pr.number} shows later cached activity matching the recommendation.`;
   if (state === "stale") return `${pr.repoFullName}#${pr.number} remains open with no later activity past the stale-outcome window.`;
   return `${pr.repoFullName}#${pr.number} is visible but has no later positive or terminal outcome yet.`;

src/types.ts

@@ -684,7 +684,7 @@ export type AgentContextSnapshotRecord = {
   createdAt?: string | null | undefined;
 };
 
-export type AgentRecommendationOutcomeState = "accepted" | "ignored" | "stale" | "merged" | "closed" | "improved";
+export type AgentRecommendationOutcomeState = "accepted" | "rejected" | "ignored" | "stale" | "merged" | "closed" | "improved";
 export type AgentRecommendationOutcomeTargetType = "pull_request" | "issue" | "repository" | "none";
 export type AgentRecommendationOutcomeConfidence = "high" | "medium" | "low";
 
@@ -694,6 +694,8 @@ export type AgentRecommendationOutcomeRecord = {
   runId: string;
   actorLogin: string;
   actionType: AgentActionType;
+  surface?: AgentSurface | null | undefined;
+  snapshotId?: string | null | undefined;
   targetRepoFullName?: string | null | undefined;
   targetPullNumber?: number | null | undefined;
   targetIssueNumber?: number | null | undefined;
@@ -721,6 +723,7 @@ export type AgentRecommendationOutcomeRepoSummary = {
   repoFullName: string;
   total: number;
   accepted: number;
+  rejected: number;
   ignored: number;
   stale: number;
   merged: number;
@@ -740,6 +743,7 @@ export type AgentRecommendationOutcomeSummary = {
   totals: {
     total: number;
     accepted: number;
+    rejected: number;
     ignored: number;
     stale: number;
     merged: number;

test/unit/decision-pack.test.ts

@@ -159,6 +159,7 @@ describe("decision-pack service", () => {
         repoFullName: "owner/direct",
         total: 4,
         accepted: 1,
+        rejected: 0,
         ignored: 1,
         stale: 0,
         merged: 1,
@@ -193,6 +194,7 @@ describe("decision-pack service", () => {
         repoFullName: "owner/direct",
         total: 6,
         accepted: 0,
+        rejected: 0,
         ignored: 2,
         stale: 2,
         merged: 0,
@@ -213,6 +215,7 @@ describe("decision-pack service", () => {
         repoFullName: "owner/direct",
         total: 4,
         accepted: 1,
+        rejected: 0,
         ignored: 1,
         stale: 0,
         merged: 1,
@@ -249,6 +252,7 @@ describe("decision-pack service", () => {
         repoFullName: "owner/direct",
         total: 0,
         accepted: 0,
+        rejected: 0,
         ignored: 0,
         stale: 0,
         merged: 0,
@@ -269,6 +273,7 @@ describe("decision-pack service", () => {
         repoFullName: "owner/direct",
         total: 2,
         accepted: 0,
+        rejected: 0,
         ignored: 1,
         stale: 0,
         merged: 0,
@@ -315,6 +320,7 @@ describe("decision-pack service", () => {
         totals: {
           total: 1,
           accepted: 1,
+          rejected: 0,
           ignored: 0,
           stale: 0,
           merged: 0,