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feat: add Behavioral Compatibility Horizon metric (#110) - #151

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Summary

Implements #110 — Behavioral Compatibility Horizon: a project-specific, METR-inspired metric for at what workflow step-complexity compatibility begins to fail.

Changes

  • New tool_semantics.horizon module:
    • Step-complexity buckets 1 / 3 / 5 / 10 / 20
    • Per-bucket success rates (omit when sample size thin)
    • 80% / 50% horizon estimates via interpolation; omit when inadequate
    • Wilson 95% CIs when trial counts permit
  • Docs: docs/research.md (transparent methodology, not a universal claim)
  • Fixture: examples/horizon/sample_observations.json

Test plan

  • pytest tests/test_horizon.py
  • ruff check / mypy
  • CI green

Closes #110

Open in Web Open in Cursor 

Step-complexity buckets (1/3/5/10/20) with 80%/50% horizon estimates,
Wilson CIs when sample size permits, and documented project-specific
methodology in docs/research.md.

Co-authored-by: Abhinaysai Kamineni  <askmy-stack@users.noreply.github.com>

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[P2] Behavioral Compatibility Horizon metric

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