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[Outcome Report] Outcome Health Report — Jun 13, 2026 #38992

Description

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Workflow Health — 2026-06-13

Executive read: Acceptance rate declined to 55.6% from 100% (regression >5pp), with 30 of 45 items pending evaluation. Smoke Claude and Issue Monster are stuck with high pending volume. Three workflows are underdefined (all outputs pending, no clear acceptance signal). Priority: investigate stalled Smoke Claude items and clarify acceptance criteria for underdefined workflows.

Workflow Status Lifecycle health References
Smoke Claude 🟨🟨🟨🟨🟩🟨🟨🟥⬜🟨🟨🟨⬜🟨🟨🟨⬜🟥🟨🟨🟩🟨⬜🟥 🔴 stuck 🟨 #38987 · 🟩 #38911 · 🟥 #38911 · ⬜ #335#discussioncomment-17285658 · 🟨 #38911 · 🟨 #38911 · ⬜ #38972 · ⬜ #335#discussioncomment-17285237 · 🟥 #38911 · 🟥 #38911 · 🟩 #38911 · 🟨 #38911
Issue Monster 🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 ⚪ underdefined 🟨 #38793#issuecomment-4696677783 · 🟨 #38846#issuecomment-4696677850 · 🟨 #38870#issuecomment-4696677914
Smoke Codex 🟨🟨 ⚪ underdefined 🟨 #38971 · 🟨 #38911
AI Moderator 🟨 ⚪ underdefined (no URL)
Agent Container Smoke Test 🟨🟩 🟡 in flight 🟨 #38911 · 🟩 #38911
Auto-Triage Issues 🟨 ⚪ underdefined (no URL)
Changeset Generator 🟨🟥 🟡 in flight 🟨 #38911 · 🟥 #38911
Daily Reliability Review 🟨 ⚪ underdefined 🟨 #38970
Semantic Function Refactoring 🟩🟨 🟡 in flight 🟩 #38748 · 🟨 #38980
Smoke Copilot - AOAI (apikey) 🟩🟨 🟡 in flight 🟩 #38911
Daily Documentation Healer ⚪ underdefined #38981
Daily Sentrux Report ⚪ underdefined #38984

Legend:

  • Status: 🟩 accepted · 🟥 rejected · 🟨 pending · ⬜ unknown
  • Lifecycle health: 🟢 resolving · 🟡 in flight · 🟠 aging · 🔴 stuck · ⚪ underdefined

🔴 Action Items

  1. Smoke Claude: Stuck workflow — 15 of 24 items (62%) pending with no resolution in recent runs. Multiple items lack URLs (unverifiable state). Recommend reviewing workflow prompt, acceptance criteria, and whether async operations need timeout handling.

  2. Issue Monster & Smoke Codex: Underdefined workflows — All outputs pending with no accepted or rejected signals. These workflows lack clear acceptance/rejection criteria or a dedicated evaluator. Define what "done" means (e.g., comment acted upon by assignee, issue closed within X hours).

  3. Regression in quality metrics — Acceptance rate dropped from 100% (Jun 10) to 55.6% (-44.4pp). Waste rate increased from 0% to 8.9%. This indicates either: (a) new workflows lack mature evaluation signals, or (b) a recent prompt/safe-output change degraded quality. Investigate recent changes to Smoke Claude.

  4. Zero-touch rate remains 0% — All accepted items required human follow-up. Agent outputs consistently need editing before acceptance. Recommend reviewing agent quality, prompt specificity, or safe-output configuration.

  5. Data quality note — 1 of 45 items (2%) were evaluated with fallback existence check only. Most outcomes have medium/strong signals, so numbers are reasonably reliable.


Detailed metrics, evidence quality, workflow counts, and trends

Outcome Scorecard — 2026-06-13

Metric Value Status
Acceptance rate 55.6% 🔴 <60% (declining)
Zero-touch rate 0% 🔴 <25%
Waste rate 8.9% 🟡 10-25%
Median time to resolution 12h
Accepted 5 / 45
— strong evidence 0 merged, completed, approved
— medium evidence 5 engaged, retained
— weak evidence 0 existence only
Rejected 4
Ignored 0 no observable follow-up
Zero-touch 0 / 5
Pending 30
Unknown 2
Runs checked 14

Per-Workflow Breakdown

Workflow Accepted Rejected Ignored Pending Unknown Waste % Acceptance %
Changeset Generator 0 1 0 1 0 50.0% 0%
Smoke Claude 2 3 0 15 4 12.5% 40%
Issue Monster 0 0 0 6 0 0%
Smoke Codex 0 0 0 2 0 0%
Agent Container Smoke Test 1 0 0 1 0 0% 100%
Semantic Function Refactoring 1 0 0 1 0 0% 100%
Smoke Copilot - AOAI (apikey) 1 0 0 1 0 0% 100%
AI Moderator 0 0 0 1 0 0%
Auto-Triage Issues 0 0 0 1 0 0%
Daily Reliability Review 0 0 0 1 0 0%
Daily Documentation Healer 0 0 0 0 1 0%
Daily Sentrux Report 0 0 0 0 1 0%

Evidence Quality

⚠️ 1 item was evaluated using only a generic existence check (signal: target_exists_only). This contributes to accepted_weak and may overstate acceptance.

Trend Signal

Comparing 2026-06-13 vs 2026-06-10 (previous report):

  • Acceptance rate: ⬇️ Regressing — 100% → 55.6% (-44.4pp). Decline exceeds acceptable 5pp threshold.
  • Zero-touch rate: ➡️ Stable — 0% → 0% (no change).
  • Waste rate: ⬆️ Regressing — 0% → 8.9% (+8.9pp). All rejections new in this cycle.

Interpretation: The system has shifted from an accept-all pattern (Jun 10) to one where workflows are systematically pending evaluation. This could indicate: (1) new workflows added with different evaluation patterns, (2) more complex safe-output types now tracked, or (3) recent evaluation rule changes. The pending volume requires investigation.

📊 Measured by Outcome Collector · 67.7 AIC · ⌖ 4.72 AIC · ⊞ 23.6K

  • expires on Jun 19, 2026, 5:11 PM UTC-08:00

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