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eval-tier1: stale test-count baseline (656 vs 1000+), cached-run count parse failure, and filtered-build reach misfire #439

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@justrach

Three independent agents hit the same wall this week while verifying unrelated PRs (#434-#438 batch); all three reproduce on pristine builds of their base commits, so none are regressions — this is the tier-1 script itself.

  1. test_count_baseline is ~350 behind. scripts/eval/tier1-manifest.json says 656; the suite is at 1000+. The ratchet has not ratcheted in a while — it should be bumped at each release cut (and arguably asserted against drift in CI so it can't silently stall again).
  2. The tests check cannot read a count off a cached run. On zig 0.17.0-dev.813, a fully-cached zig build test does not print the N/N tests passed summary line the script's comment assumes; the check reports "could not read the test count out of the build summary" and FAILs on a build that is actually green. Workaround in the field: rm -rf .zig-cache/h and re-run — but the script should handle the cached shape itself (e.g. run the compiled test artifact directly, which always prints All N tests passed).
  3. The reach check can mis-fire on filtered builds: if a -Dtest-filter build is the newest artifact in .zig-cache/o, reachability counts that filtered binary and reports missing tests that exist.

All three degrade trust in a gate that's otherwise doing its job — the pre-push hook caught real regressions in the past, and false FAILs teach people to ignore it.

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