PROBE-METACOGNITIVE-TRIANGLE-1 — close the triangle's missing control arrow through the shipped Revision/counterfactual surface

[AdaWorldAPI]

What this is

One new example (crates/cognitive-shader-driver/examples/probe_metacognitive_triangle.rs) + its board entry (E-METACOGNITIVE-TRIANGLE-ARROW-1, same commit). No src/ changes anywhere. Cargo.lock records the sibling ndarray path-dep's new blake3 dependency only.

The audit finding it lands

The autopoiesis triangle was write-only in the cognitive sense. Storage and mechanics are complete and tested (StyleLane, the three ValueTenant lanes at 152/164/176, MailboxSoA::{set_style_lane, set_style_atom, promote_family}, MailboxSoaView::{style_lane_at, triangle_at}) — but measured against main @ f5e27c9d:

• Read side: no code anywhere read StyleLane::Frozen to choose HOW to reason.
• Decide side: no code consumed a receipt of a reasoning run to decide keep/explore/promote. The teacher probe computed decisions from fresh grades and bypassed promote_family, which had zero callers outside its own unit tests.

This is persona-vs-rung-ladder.md O6 ("triangle structure unbuilt"), now measured rather than asserted.

Premise correction recorded en route: the CE64 59..60 factual lens is CausalTopology::{Direct, IndirectKnownIntermediates, IndirectUnknownIntermediates, Unknown} — "IntermediateKnown/Unknown" was the brainstorm's prose, not the type.

The loop the probe closes (once, falsifier-first, Sudoku corpus)

frozen lane ──READ──▶ lower rung reasons about the puzzle
                             ▼
                   RungReceipt (warranted assignments, fixed point,
                   unresolved count, kernel side-channel events)
                             ▼
           meta pass — object = the receipt, NEVER the grid
                             ▼
     KeepFrozen / TryExplore / RecordLearned / promote_family
                             ▼
           next run READS the lane it chose (and solves the stall)

The Revision hinge is the SHIPPED surface (operator correction mid-build)

counterfactual.rs verified: the v2 lane is real and tested (deposit_counterfactual, RawEdge/EpisodicEdge, FreeEnergyComparison::minority_wins(), RevisionOutcome); the v3 lane is todo!() (CounterfactualMailbox::{new,poll,cancel}, revise_if_minority_wins — blocked on D-PERSONA-5). The probe therefore:

• declares TryExplore a split (frozen commitment = majority pole, explore hypothesis = minority pole) and stamps a RawEdge with the −6 counterfactual mantissa via deposit_counterfactual — the entire Explore arm runs in the counterfactual lane, never observed truth;
• rules every A-vs-B with FreeEnergyComparison::minority_wins() (residual F = unresolved/81) and names the verdict a RevisionOutcome — MajorityHolds refuses promotion on the base held-out, Revised triggers the first production-path promote_family call in the codebase on the stall held-out, then clears the mantissa to 0 per revise_if_minority_wins's documented step-5 protocol;
• does not call the two todo!() bodies — the actor arm stays honestly blocked, not faked.

Invariant this buys: exploration may be destructive inside the counterfactual lane; commitment may not be destructive without warrant. Every committed digit carries ≥1 named exclusion warrant and matches an independent backtracking oracle.

TCP/TCF/CUR as the first metacognitive event — no delta_conf edit

The #995/#997 coarse-signature collision is re-observed live (side-channel, cloned candidate sets only): where all three kernels see the same n≥3 set with identical (fired, sign Δconf), the exact (len_before, len_after) transitions already separate TCF (→singleton) from TCP/CUR (→identity). Verdict: ObserverInsufficient { colliding: [5, 20, 26], exact_separates: [20] } — request a richer receipt, never mutate recipe semantics for telemetry. TCF's manufactured singleton (n=3 → 1, zero warrants) is classified UnwarrantedCertainty and refused as truth; the cell stays unresolved.

Results — 12/12 gates green

Gate	Result
F1 keep-frozen on warranted progress	PASS
F2 fixed point + unresolved → TryExplore	PASS
F4 degenerate explore stays silent (minority does not win → no Learned write)	PASS
F5 minority wins → Learned recorded	PASS
F6 held-out non-reproduction → MajorityHolds / refuse	PASS
F7 held-out reproduction → Revised / promote_family (first production-path call)	PASS
read-side arrow: next run reads the promoted Frozen lane, 0 unresolved	PASS
counterfactual lane: −6 stamped on TryExplore, cleared to 0 on Revised	PASS
F8 coarse collides / exact separates TCF → ObserverInsufficient	PASS
F3/F15 unwarranted certainty refused; every commit carried ≥1 warrant	PASS
F13 bystander row byte-identical	PASS
F14 full-loop determinism (identical decisions + logs)	PASS

Deferred with scope notes: F9 (reason-context equivalence); F10/F11 (Revision→Kanban hinge — the verdict_from → select_tactic "designed, not wired" edge is deliberately the NEXT slice); F12 holds by construction (this file never imports causal_edge; CE64 bits 59..63 untouched).

Run: cargo run -p cognitive-shader-driver --example probe_metacognitive_triangle

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